Snitzel had his 21st two year-old winner of the season at Newcastle's Beaumont Track on Wednesday so we thought we'd have a crack at guessing just how many winners he'll have this season in the quest to set a new Australian record and with perhaps a new world mark in sight.
The latest winner was Hypnotist, a colt out of My Amazing Dream which was purchased out of New Zealand last year by James Harron Bloodstock for $240,000 from the Highview Stud draft at the NZB Premier Yearling Sale.
21 two year-old winners for one stallion by this stage of the season is a stunning performance so it's an interesting exercise to delve into the figures and see just what Snitzel's opportunities are for the remainder of the season.
He's of course already an equal holder of the record, having matched Without Fear's 1976 mark of 30 winners last season.
A figure perhaps even more interesting than the 21 winners this season though is the paltry five by comparison that he'd had by the same stage last season, which obviously was a precursor to a flurry of success late in the season although that could be a bit of a red herring.
|Winners to Feb16||Season Winners||Crop/Offered at sale||Raced To Date (winners)||Raced Season|
The last two columns in the above table relate only to the yearlings which had been offered in a sale ring, about 80% of his total crop each year, so let's use them as our guide.
In the 2015 season 25% of his offered yearlings had raced and by season's end 56% of them had done so. Last season 22% had raced and by season's end 50% had raced.
So far this season 38% have raced which is about a 50% increase on those last two seasons which extrapolates out to give his season numbers for this year somewhere between 75 (assuming it all evens out) and about 100 (assuming the rapid increase in runners holds firm).
On past efforts that puts his winners anywhere from last season's 30 to as high as 40.
It's a fair bet that his prowess with the juveniles last season has that at the front of mind more than ever for trainers with a Snitzel and that's likely a factor in his increased runners this season, so it's hard to imagine the increased representation is not going to continue to some extent.
That makes him the hottest of favourites to set a new Australian mark but can he set a new world mark, currently 39 winners held by US stallion Wildcat Heir?
The only other factor to temper the enthusiasm might be that they are an expensive ticket these days, mostly in the gun stables and clearly being tested earlier so if they haven't shone yet we might be waiting longer.
So what's our tip?
The Australian record is in the bag and the world record will make the final weeks of the season compelling. The tip – 37.